Victoria’s infrastructure is set to fail more often without action to adapt to climate change, according to the state’s independent infrastructure advisory body.

Infrastructure Victoria’s latest research, titled Weathering the storm, says climate change presents a ‘real and accelerating danger’ to the state’s infrastructure assets.

It makes seven recommendations about how the state government can improve climate change adaptation across departments and agencies.

“Victoria’s infrastructure was not built for more frequent and severe weather events,” Infrastructure Victoria Chief Executive Officer Dr Jonathan Spear says.

“Infrastructure is now exposed to greater damage from bushfire, floods, and storms.”

The report says while governments can’t completely eliminate the risk of climate-related infrastructure damage, it’s possible to mitigate it.

Targeted and cost-effective adaptation solutions – including regular maintenance, choosing more robust construction materials, or rethinking design – can reduce the costs of recovery, the report finds.

Not built for severe climate events

The report says Victoria’s infrastructure isn’t built for climate change, and events like rising temperatures, decreased rainfall, rising sea levels and more frequent severe weather will take its toll.

“Victoria’s infrastructure was not built for frequent and severe climate events,” it says.

“Much Victorian government-owned or regulated infrastructure is already vulnerable to climate change events. If governments do not act to adapt to new climatic conditions, Victoria’s infrastructure will fail more often.”

Responding to risks

Infrastructure Victoria cites previous research to warn that without action, climate related damage in the state could cost $115 billion by 2030 and more than $986 billion by 2100.

However, while the government is committed to climate adaptation, it’s less keen to spend money on adapting infrastructure.

The state budget allocated $166 million in 2023–24 to climate resilience, largely for revegetation projects, waterways management or drought resilience projects for agriculture, yet there was no separate spending for infrastructure adaptation projects, the report says.

The report looks at how Victorian government departments and agencies are adapting their infrastructure and makes recommendations to guide ‘wise and prudent investments that reduce the risks climate change poses to infrastructure’.

This includes include boosting oversight of infrastructure adaptation, standardising climate projections, embedding resilience in asset management systems, integrating climate risk into risk management and aligning climate and financial risks to infrastructure.

Local focus critical

Local analysis is critical, Infrastructure Victoria says, and asset managers will need to focus on local conditions to understand how climate change will affect specific assets.

“If infrastructure managers do not undertake localised analysis, they risk investing in measures that might not be effective for decades or might be ineffective or maladaptive,” the report says.

It notes some local governments are already analysing climate damage and risks.

The Eastern Alliance for Greenhouse Action calculates that climate hazards cost greater Melbourne local governments $90 to $120 million annually.

Without adapting infrastructure to climate change, this is projected to increase to $210 to $300 million annually by 2050 and $400 to $540 million annually by 2100.

“Local governments can use these estimates as a baseline assessment for their cost-benefit analyses of adaptation measures,” the report says.