Local government areas in regional electorates across Australia face some of the worst increases in temperatures if there is no action to cut back on fossil fuels, modelling by the Climate Council shows.
If Australia and other nations fail to follow through on climate commitments regional electorates in Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory will experience temperatures 35°C-plus for more than six months of the year by 2090, the advisory body warns.
Projections are based on a high emissions scenario, a pathway in which global emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century. It corresponds with a likely global average temperature rise of around 4.4°C by 2100.
The Climate Council’s modelling also shows the prolonged high temperatures will hit LGAs in electorates with residents least able to cope with the heat, including those with greater numbers of older Australians and young children.
“Heat can impact anyone but those over 65 and children under five are most at risk of becoming ill on hot days and during heatwaves,” said the Climate Council’s Professor David Karoly. “As a climate scientist and a grandparent I’m alarmed at the heat our communities are facing if we don’t forge ahead with rapid cuts to climate pollution.”
Lyne, in north-east New South Wales, has the largest proportion of people over 65 of any Australian electorate. Residents are set to swelter through three times more hot days by 2050 – from three days to nine days – says the Climate Council. “Even a small increase in the number of hot days or nights can damage our ecosystems and our health,” Karoly said.
The nearby Cowper electorate also has a high proportion of older Australians. Its residents will experience an marked increase in hot days as well, says the council. “The heat is already unbearable in my part of regional Australia,” said long-time resident Maura Luxford. “Many of my elderly friends have endured another gruelling summer, and it’s taking a toll.”
Poor electorates will also be disproportionately impacted by the prolonged heat, according to the Climate Council’s forecasting. As an example, the independent, not-for-profit points to Lingiari in the NT – Australia’s poorest electorate. Communities there face an expected 235 days over 35°C a year.
The Climate Councils figures are average increases, Karoly said, “which means there will be some years in which many more extreme hot days are experienced than the projected average number over two decades.”
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