Even under a low emissions scenario, NSW can expect an additional 15 days above 35C each year by 2090, according to the latest climate change projections released by the state government.

As well as rising temperatures, the updated projections indicate an increase in extreme weather events, including bushfires.

The modelling, published to help governments, agencies, businesses, landholders and communities plan for the future, highlights the need for more action on emissions, informed planning and resilience-building, the government says.

The third version of the NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) forecasts climate outcomes for NSW based on global emissions scenarios and follows earlier versions released in 2014 and 2021.

“The updated set of climate projections are among the most detailed available in the country,” climate change minister Penny Sharpe said.

“We can’t plan for the future without the best data, that’s what NARCliM provides.

“This data will help protect critical infrastructure including hospitals, transport networks, dams and energy systems from climate change impacts such as extreme heat, fires and floods.”

NARCliM 2.0 projects that by the year 2100, NSW can expect:

•  increased average temperatures in all parts of NSW, with the greatest rises inland

• more hot days of 35C and above for all regions across the state

• fewer cold nights below 2C, particularly along the Great Dividing Range, and

• more extreme weather events including severe fire weather days for all of NSW by 2050

Two scenarios

It’s the first time NARCliM has provided low emissions scenario projections that show the benefits to NSW of achieving the Paris targets.

The updated data models two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and what climate in NSW is projected to look like under each one.

By 2090, under a low emissions scenario, temperatures are projected to increase by a further 1.3C and there would be up to an additional 15 days above 35C each year.

Under a high emissions scenario, temperatures are projected to rise by a further 4°C and there would be up to 45 days above 35C.

“The data shows two clear options,” Ms Sharpe said.

“We can do nothing which will lock in more extreme weather events in the future, or we can reduce emissions now to play our part in limiting the damage.”

NARCliM climate projections are led by the NSW Government with the support of the ACT, South Australian, Victorian, and Western Australian governments, National Computational Infrastructure, Murdoch University and the University of NSW.

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